
ARGENTINIAN TIME
First it was a radical pan big deal. The idea was that under the candidacy of Ricardo Alfonsin unify the internal lines led by Ernesto Sanz and Julio César Cobos and plait agreements with Margarita GEN Stolbizer and the Civic Coalition Elisa Carrio. Then joined the Socialist Party with Rubén Giustiniani more excited than a Hermes Binner the self-styled progressive opposition agglomerate. At one point, he joined former Peronist Fernando "Pino" Solanas in a strange alliance, but that did not sound crazy, after all, reissue the alliance between the conservative Radical Fernando de la Rua and Frepaso led by Carlos "Chacho" Alvarez, a politician who carried on their backs the fight against neoliberalism in full decade Menem and perhaps (beyond its own enclosure) the company unfairly billed role and subsequent resignation as vice president in one of the worst governments in Argentina's history. It was not easy to think men and women of the South Project, many of them militants invaluable national and popular field, go down the street hand in hand with radicalism inert should get out of the fateful experience 1999-2001, but that agreement was not surprising in view of the wild phobia that the editor of The Exile of Gardel and Sur-two terrific movies-felt nacional.Todavía government is not cooked the stew and many within the South Project explained that the favor Pino Solanas did after getting out of the national race and leave the way clear for Alfonsin, in fact, not a gesture toward radicalism, but that is the way to Santa Fe as enthrone a socialist candidate presidential. But the truth is that if there was a political strategist of the unified opposition with the sole intention of defeating the kirchnerismo no matter the future of Argentine -Suppose that there is a man or a lord almighty Magnetto Steel-Solanas directs you step off the national bid to make the scenario ballottage be advanced to the first round, namely that the polarization between two candidates is produced in the body initial force the government to have to win more than 45% of the vote. The same thing would indicate, for example, Eduardo Duhalde or Mauricio Macri. But again, that you would think if and only if there is a big brain behind all the armed opposition, which I do not think it exists. The operation is simple: the more candidates there in the first round, the easier it is for the government lifted with first-round victory because with a minimum of 40.1% versus 29% in the second and 28% in the third, for example, avoid the ballottage. If the election is polarized, demands more effort, just a matter of speculation numerical outdo the former the latter by more than ten points, it becomes more closed. The government is appropriate to the dispersion of opposition vote, and the opposition, should be the central command, there is not much mystery in this. As the presidential election system is a "win all", many candidates lost. For example: If Pino goes by the City of Buenos Aires and loses, his career-curriculum is limited because no candidate Presidential expectant but one of many applicants for county government like so many others. The biggest losers, of course, is Macri. White promise Argentina's center will be remembered as "not encouraged", "that gave no leather," which could have been. " Suppose the current head of government decides to go for the presidency and comes second, well, lost, but became the undisputed leader of the opposition in 2015. With a little patience and maintains the City of Buenos Aires with a governor that will guarantee its own resources to continue in politics, is likely to continue growing. Even if it comes third, still opportunities in his presidential aspirations for 2015. But if he stays in the city, it has more to lose: 1) if one of those chances do not win on ballottage, he has no choice but to engage in science fiction literature, for example. 2) and if re-elected, has no other thing to keep bored as usual in his post in charge of the Buenos Aires mayor, with an aggregate of Buenos Aires is that voters no longer have the same patience that you had before. " It is a problem for the national government unified opposition candidate after the Alfonsin figure? A priori one would say yes. However, I think that national politics had become somewhat bland and many cadres and had installed a sense of "autopilot" that deflated the nerve Kirchner is the engine of change and deepening of national and popular model. By not having secured the victory, the ruling party can not afford to be tempted to make the plate, because from now on can only lose what they had gained. He has no choice but to go out and do what he does best and more like the kirchnerismo: seduce, build power, convince, persuade, mobilize, love, planning policies, taking the lead more jerk than it is haciendo.Pero even if they want to disguise it as simple spat elections, the fight is always deeper background and remains the same: the national and popular model against a schema, even when carrying a progressive and rational as candidate Ricardo Alfonsin, who has demonstrated a great grasp of political articulation around the figure-is diagrammed with refractory logic of the Democratic Union or the Alliance of 1999. Behind the armed opposition and the ruling party's defeat crouch Clarín, Techint, the Sociedad Rural, the Victorica Juan Martín Romero, the Cecilia Pando, neoliberal economists, the IMF, the leaders of Catholicism, condemned repressors, ie whatever way the old Argentina. However, I want to do one last year. Imagine winning the "armed progressive", can you imagine, dear reader, the Alfonsin government sharing power with Macri as mayor of Buenos Aires and Francisco de Narváez as governor of the province's most powerful country? Do not sit shivering in the back of the double Nelson just think that would make the company of two great popes of the Argentine liberal conservatism? Would not it be responsible for delivering the country and its major territories on the right pseudo Argentine liberalism? Could Alfonsin govern the country when its two main arms will not respond or were allegedly contradictory terms ideological? After the profound transformation that made the Kirchner in the last eight years, can rule in liberal terms without the organized labor movement or against it? The fight back, dear reader, is between the current national and popular model that has shown progress, predictability, good governance and an unknown model that looks like a Frankenstein of spasmodic movements, and is built and created, seems destined to at the bottom end of the cold water as the unhappy creature of Mary Shelley. Or how the Democratic Union. Or as the Alliance.
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